A couple of months ago, a friend from work pointed me to an e-mail of a speech by Herbert Meyer who "served during the Reagan administration as special assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA's National Intelligence Council." The text of Meyer's speech can be found at this post of The Braden Files.
In the speech, a Global Intelligence Briefing for CEOs, Meyer proposed that there are four major transformations that are affecting, or will affect, the socio-political climate of the West:
- the war in Iraq,
- the emergence of China,
- shifting demographics of Western civilization and,
- the restructuring of American business
I found his proposals intriguing not simply for their clarity, but for their congruence with points made by Daniel Pink in his book A Whole New Mind (and, many thanks to Joe Carter for recommending this book to me). In A Whole New Mind, Pink predicts that to thrive in the future economy of the West, one must embrace new paradigms in the way we will work. The key factors to be aware of, according to Pink, are that our economy and culture is now driven by Abundance, Automation, and Asia.
Regarding the War in Iraq, Meyer states,
There are three major monotheistic religions in the world: Christianity, Judaism and Islam. In the 16th century, Judaism and Christianity reconciled with the modern world. The rabbis, priests and scholars found a way to settle up and pave the way forward. Religion remained at the center of life, church and state became separate. Rule of law, idea of economic liberty, individual rights, human rights all these are defining points of modern Western civilization...
Islam, which developed in the 7th century, counts millions of Moslems around the world who are normal people. However, there is a radical streak within Islam. When the radicals are in charge, Islam attacks Western civilization. Islam first attacked Western civilization in the 7th century, and later in the 16th and 17th centuries...
Today, terrorism is the third attack on Western civilization by radical Islam. To deal with terrorism, the U.S. is doing two things. First, units of our armed forces are in 30 countries around the world hunting down terrorist groups and dealing with them. This gets very little publicity. Second we are taking military action in Afghanistan and Iraq. These are covered relentlessly by the media. People can argue about whether the war in Iraq is right or wrong. However, the underlying strategy behind the war is to use our military to remove the radicals from power and give the moderates a chance...
The implications of our engagement in Iraq go beyond Iraq. Per Meyer,
...The level of violence in Iraq is much worse and doesn't appear to be improving. It's possible that we're asking too much of Islam all at one time. We're trying to jolt them from the 7th century to the 21st century all at once, which may be further than they can go. They might make it and they might not. Nobody knows for sure. The point is, we don't know how the war will turn out. Anyone who says they know is just guessing.
...
We don't know if we will win the war in Iraq. We could lose or win. What we're looking for is any indicator that Islam is moving into the 21st century and stabilizing.
Now, with regards to China, Meyer has some interesting comments. He states,
In the last 20 years, China has moved 250 million people from the farms and villages into the cities. Their plan is to move another 300 million in the next 20 years. When you put that many people into the cities, you have to find work for them. That's why China is addicted to manufacturing; they have to put all the relocated people to work. When we decide to manufacture something in the U.S., it's based on market needs and the opportunity to make a profit. In China, they make the decision because they want the jobs, which is a very different calculation.
While China is addicted to manufacturing, Americans are addicted to low prices. As a result, a unique kind of economic codependency has developed between the two countries. If we ever stop buying from China, they will explode politically. If China stops selling to us, our economy will take a huge hit because prices will jump. We are subsidizing their economic development, they are subsidizing our economic growth.
These are some interesting points. I was unaware that China had moved so many people into the cities. Yet what is even more intriguing is the notion that their economic decisions are made based on the need to have jobs (shades of Civilian Conservation Corps from the Great Depression). Another interesting aspect of Meyer's speech is the comment regarding Americans and their addiction to low prices (and, I would add, our addiction to consumerism). I'm astounded, and embarrassed, to look at some of the products available for purchase in the United States that were made in China. I'm not embarrassed because they were made in China; I'm embarrassed because I wonder just what the average Chinese person thinks about why a Westerner would want such a product manufactured. Regardless, the point Meyer is making is that there is a new economy to consider - that of a globally based economy in which the sellers and buyers are driven by different needs and desires. Daniel Pink notes that an outgrowth of our abundance has been the desire for some type of transcendent meaning - sometimes found in simple, trivial things (think: downloadable ringtones). When you factor in the ability to mass produce a product overseas (read: China), it's no wonder we see jobs drift to Asia.
Meyer's warning, though, overshadows Pink's concern with how this all will affect our employment prospects here in the U.S. From Meyer's speech,
China is also thirsty for oil, which is one reason oil is now at $60 a barrel. By 2020, China will produce more cars than the U.S. China is also buying its way into the oil infrastructure around the world. They are doing it in the open market and paying fair market prices, but millions of barrels of oil that would have gone to the U.S. are now going to China. China's quest to assure it has the oil it needs to fuel its economy is a major factor in world politics and economics. We have our Navy fleets protecting the sea lines, specifically the ability to get the tankers through. It won't be long before the Chinese have an aircraft carrier sitting in the Persian Gulf as well. The question is, will their aircraft carrier be pointing in the same direction as ours or against us?
China is fast becoming a real problem for the United States. While they are, arguably, no longer Communist (indeed, how would Marx have justified communist factories filling capitalist stores with trinkets?), they are simply too big to ignore. Never mind political theories, never mind manifestos, and never mind religion - a hungry mouth to feed is still a hungry mouth.
The Global War on Terror has demonstrated that our military must reshape the way it engages in war. Conventional methods, and weaponry, are not necessarily the methods of choice when fighting an enemy such as al-Qaeda. Yet, what does one do with the likes of China? From Meyer,
We may wake up one morning and find they have launched an attack on Taiwan. If so, it will be a mess, both economically and militarily. The U.S. has committed to the military defense of Taiwan. If China attacks Taiwan, will we really go to war against them? If the Chinese generals believe the answer is no, they may attack. If we don't defend Taiwan, every treaty the U.S. has will be worthless. Hopefully,China won't do anything stupid.
With regards to shifting demographics of Western civilization, Meyer states,
Most countries in the Western world have stopped breeding. For a civilization obsessed with sex, this is remarkable. Maintaining a steady population requires a birth rate of 2.1. In Western Europe, the birth rate currently stands at 1.5, or 30 percent below replacement. In 30 years there will be 70 to 80 million fewer Europeans than there are today. The current birth rate in Germany is 1.3. Italy and Spain are even lower at 1.2. At that rate, the working age population declines by 30 percent in 20 years, which has a huge impact on the economy.
I would refer to this as the Post-Christian Effect. Affluence, among other things, has bred a disdain for the socio-cultural foundation known as marriage. And with it, the family has begun to fall. Is it so surprising that a narcissistic and vain culture will eventually breed itself out of existence? Pink unwittingly reflects on this aspect in the way he describes an outcome of our abundance,
Abundance has brought beautiful things to our lives, but that bevy of material goods has not necessarily made us happier. The paradox of prosperity is that while living standards have risen steadily decade after decade, personal, family, and life satisfaction haven't budged. That's why more people - liberated by prosperity but not fulfilled by it - are resolving the paradox by searching for meaning.
Yet our search for meaning has not driven us back to the essence of society. Instead, our selfish desires have pushed us further into the quest for self-actualized meaning. Is it no wonder that the church in the Third World will most likely carry the torch of Christianity in the near future?
All that Pink can do, in this regard, is point to the economic impacts of such a dire state of affairs.
Lastly, Meyer speaks about the restructuring of American business. He states,
A generation ago, IBM used to make every part of their computer. Now Intel makes the chips, Microsoft makes the software, and someone else makes the modems, hard drives, monitors, etc. IBM even outsources their call center. Because IBM has all these companies supplying goods and services cheaper and better than they could do it themselves, they can make a better computer at a lower cost. This is called a "fracturing" of business. When one company can make a better product by relying on others to perform functions the business used to do itself, it creates a complex pyramid of companies that serve and support each other.
Pink also writes on this topic in the sense of Automation and how it has altered the landscape of jobs, many of which would have, just a few short years ago, seemed to have been safe. Essentially, if a computer can do your job faster than you, then your job will eventually be replaced. The same principle applies with regards to whether or not another company can perform a certain function faster (and cheaper) than your company; if so, then it won't be long before your company outsources work it used to do on its own.
In A Whole New Mind, Pink proposes that one combat the coming changes by focusing on the meaningful aspects of life that cannot be replicated by Automation or be performed in Asia. He addresses 6 areas that one must strive to excel in:
- Design
- Story
- Symphony
- Empathy
- Play
- Meaning
Meyer, on the other hand, emphasizes the newer economic structure that must follow,
The restructuring of American business means we are coming to the end of the age of the employer and employee. With all this fracturing of businesses into different and smaller units, employers can't guarantee jobs anymore because they don't know what their companies will look like next year. Everyone is on their way to becoming an independent contractor. The new workforce contract will be, "Show up at the my office five days a week and do what I want you to do, but you handle your own insurance, benefits, health care and everything else."
Regardless of how correct either Meyer or Pink are, we must understand that we live in dynamic times. And how could it not be this way? Only 50 years ago jet air travel was an oddity, the major electronic device in one's home was a small screen television (black & white), and a collection of 100 vinyl records took up the space of... 100 vinyl records. Compare that with today, where we can flip on our 60-inch flatscreen television (in color, of course) to watch The Amazing Race, a show where couples race across the globe (via jet airliner travel) carrying, in their shirt pockets, an iPod (with the equivalent musical collection of 100 vinyl records).
Meyer concludes with,
Ultimately, it's an issue of culture. The only people who can hurt us are ourselves, by losing our culture. If we give up our Judeo-Christian culture, we become just like the Europeans. The culture war is the whole ballgame. If we lose it, there isn't another America to pull us out.
For the Christian, the issues go beyond that of mere cultural, political and economic concerns. The core of human existence is at stake - as it has always been. For the Christian, if America loses, it is not the end; a battle will have been lost, but the war has already been won. If, in fact, the Judeo-Christian culture is correct, then there is a reason for our hope. The physical threats to both the Christian faith and our well-being, the cultural attack on the family, and our deep, deep desire for transcendence can all be viewed as indicators of a sort - indicators of our temporal existence, and of the notion that, despite what happens here, we were meant for another place.
Note: one of my self-imposed rules for returning to the blogosphere was to keep my posts relatively short. In this post I, obviously, failed to follow that rule.
Hi Rusty,
Great summary and comments!
I was originally upset by the Clinton administration granting most favored nation status to China as a trading partner. I felt like we were rewarding the bad behavior of the Chinese. However, I have come to view trade with China as much better than not trading with them. As you noted; they need us to buy from them, so it is less likely they will engage in behavior that will start a war with us. Apparently, China is still in the covert operations business, but at least now it is more measured on their part.
“Materialism” has a good side and a bad side. The bad side is the keep up with the Jones greed, but the good side is the jobs and opportunities that are created for the less fortunate as consumers purchase more and more products. All my life I’ve heard about how Christians in America need to give to charities that help the poor in other countries and for most of my life the problem of poverty got worse. However, the problem of poverty in India and China and other countries is now being solved with free trade.
It might be good for an American revival of self reliance if we quit depending on employers (and government) for are welfare and started fending for ourselves as independent contractors.
Culture seems to evolve regardless of our intentions. My 10-year-old daughter stood in front of several casting agents when she auditioned for “Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader” Monday. She gave a short presentation and then answered their questions with the camera rolling. I can’t imagine anyone in my 4th grade class, some of whom are quite successful now, being mature enough or able to do what most of the 600 or so other kids did at the auditions. They have been influenced by TV, movies, and school to not have the same inhibitions as previous generations.
Perhaps the truths of the Gospel are not as much tied to the culture as we believe. (I say perhaps because I agree with you, but I’m not completely sure.) The Gospel was relevant during our Civil War and WWII and it is relevant during our prosperity now. Identifying and dealing with sin should transcend culture as should a visible display of goodness, but there will always be those who like sin and oppose Godly goodness.
Sorry for the long comment, too. : - )
Posted by: David M. Smith | June 15, 2007 at 09:20 AM